China Remains World’s Leading Emerging Market
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Tops annual 50-country logistics industry ranking
BAAR, Switzerland – February 10, 2020 – China is #1 among 50 emerging markets in the 2020 Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index, which ranks countries by factors that make them attractive to logistics providers, freight forwarders, shipping lines, air cargo carriers and distributors.
After China, others at the top of the 11th annual Index are India, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Mexico, Thailand and Turkey.
China, India and Indonesia rank highest for domestic logistics; China, India and Mexico are top for international logistics; and UAE, Malaysia and Saudi Arabia have the best business fundamentals. China ranks 8th in business fundamentals, down one spot from 2019.
Agility also surveyed 780 global supply chain professionals. They are signaling unease about slowing economic growth in China and U.S.-China trade tensions: India was their top selection for near-term logistics potential; China was their second choice.
Seventy-percent of professionals doing business in China say they are not shrinking or moving their operations because of the U.S.-China trade war. Among those who say they will move, 25% indicate Vietnam is their preferred country to shift operations to, while 23% choose India.
2020 Index and Survey Highlights
- China and India, atop the 2020 rankings based on their size and strength as international and domestic logistics markets, lag behind smaller rivals in business fundamentals, a category based on regulatory environment, credit and debt dynamics, contract enforcement, anti-corruption safeguards, price stability and market access. In that area, China ranks No. 8 and India is No. 18.
- The strongest clusters of emerging markets are in the Arabian Gulf and Southeast Asia, thanks to business-friendly conditions and core strengths – the Gulf’s energy wealth and Southeast Asian manufacturing power – that draw logistics activity. In the Gulf, UAE (No. 3), Saudi Arabia (6), Qatar (7), Oman (14), Bahrain (15) and Kuwait (19) rank strongly. Among ASEAN countries, Indonesia (4), Malaysia (5), Thailand (9), and Vietnam (11) are strong.
- Survey respondents see India as the market with greatest potential over China, their second choice. In rankings of best business conditions, several countries are making big moves: Egypt climbs 10 spots to #17; Ukraine jumps 10 spots to #27; Ghana drops 13 spots to #32; and Iran tumbles 12 spots to #38.
- Forty-two percent of those surveyed say a prolonged trade standoff between the U.S. and China could benefit Southeast Asian countries, which offer manufacturing and sourcing alternatives to China. This is less, however, than 56% who said last year that Southeast Asia would benefit.
- Egypt, despite a brief period of social unrest in 2019, showed significant gains across all indices. On the overall index, Egypt rose six spots to No. 20, while leaping 10 spots on the business fundamentals chart (20), six spots on the domestic opportunities index (13) and jumping five spots on the international opportunities index (23).
- The top three factors that keep small businesses out of global trade are trade bureaucracy (17%), government/border instability (14%) and inability to compete with larger rivals (14%), according to supply chain professionals.
- Despite the belief a recession is likely, emerging markets still grew an estimated 3.7% in 2019 and are projected by the IMF to grow 4.4% in 2020. As for what is driving emerging markets growth, 23% say modernization of customs systems and processes; 18% cite increased internet penetration; 16% say modernization of logistics provider systems (WMS, TMS, etc.); and 15% mention increased adoption and modernization of online payment systems.
- The top five “megacity” emerging markets logistics hubs are Shanghai, New Delhi, São Paulo, Jakarta and Mexico City. Megacities – urban centers with populations of 10 million or more – require vast logistics support to meet domestic needs and engage in trade.
- E-commerce fulfillment is named as the logistics service most likely to maintain or improve growth, well ahead of other services such as domestic last-mile delivery and international express parcel delivery.
- The countries with the least potential as logistics markets in 2020 are Syria, Iran, Venezuela, Iraq and Libya, according to the survey.
Transport Intelligence (Ti), a leading analysis and research firm for the logistics industry, compiled the Index.
2020 Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index: www.agility.com/2020index
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About Agility
Agility is a global logistics company with $5.1 billion in annual revenue and 26,000+ employees in more than 100 countries. It is one of the world’s top freight forwarding and contract logistics providers, and a leader and investor in technology to enhance supply chain efficiency. Agility is a pioneer in emerging markets and one of the largest private owners and developers of warehousing and light industrial parks in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. Agility’s subsidiary companies offer fuel logistics, airport services, commercial real estate and facilities management, customs digitization, and remote infrastructure services.
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Sabrina Mundy
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